The bad news for this spring's college graduates is that they're entering the toughest labor market in at least 25 years.
The worse news: Even those who land jobs will likely suffer lower wages for a decade or more compared to those lucky enough to graduate in better times, studies show.
The W$J doesn't mention this, but many of these grads, and/or their parents, are also facing a heavy load of student debt that they need to start paying off immediately. And studies show that entering the post-college job market in Bad Times will affect not just your lifetime earnings , but also the arc of your career.
Economic research shows that the consequences of graduating in a downturn are long-lasting. They include lower earnings, a slower climb up the occupational ladder and a widening gap between the least- and most-successful grads.
In short, luck matters. The damage can linger up to 15 years, says Lisa Kahn, a Yale School of Management economist. She used the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, a government data base, to track wages of white men who graduated before, during and after the deep 1980s recession.
Ms. Kahn found that for each percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate, those with the misfortune to graduate during the recession earned 7% to 8% less in their first year out than comparable workers who graduated in better times. The effect persisted over many years, with recession-era grads earning 4% to 5% less by their 12th year out of college, and 2% less by their 18th year out.
The real curse is that, even in the best of times, the promise of college, doesn't always pay off because there are often more college grads out there than there are jobs requiring a college degree. No Stimulous Necessary for College Education
The three occupations expected to have the largest increases in the number of workers employed are all jobs that people can do with only on-the-job training (OJT) — jobs like home health care aides. If you add up all the occupations that call for only OJT, it’s nearly 52 percent of the expected job growth. If you add in those jobs mentioned above that call for some vocational training, it’s over 58 percent.
Therefore, while Obama wants us to think that we’re falling well short educationally and need more people to complete college, in fact the BLS numbers show nothing of the sort. The majority of the job growth, according to the BLS, will be in work that demands nothing more than simple trainability, not advanced academic study.
The political class always thinks more education is the answer. It's a lot easier for them to open up schools and tell people, hey, maybe you're not smart enough to make it in today's economy, rather than actually create an environment in which desirable jobs are being created in time for them to stand around and take credit.
Moreover, the demand for "more education" creates insurmountable barriers for ambitious minorities, immigrants, and working class whites who can't realistically afford to go to a 4-year college. The linked article mentions that many companies use a college degree as a crude cut-off in hiring. Enterprise Rent-a-Car, for example, requires all of their reservation agents - those people you talk to on the phone or at the airport - to have college degrees. Why some chubby frat-boy who majored in beer should have such an advantage over the hard-working son of a Wal-Mart clerk is beyond me.
Of course, the United States is filled with non-college educational institutions that can train someone for a good career. Maybe they won't learn Shakespeare, but I think Western Civilization will be able to cope: Should You Go To College
Jenna Ashley Robinson writes: "If you decide that college isn’t the best alternative for you, there are many other opportunities:
- Pursue a trade: From the traditional contractor’s license to high-tech certificate programs sponsored by Microsoft and Cisco, there are ways to pursue a profession that do not require college. You can get a contractor’s license in plumbing, HVAC, electrical, or general contracting by passing the state test. You could become a Licensed Practical Nurse with just one year of study. Other fields where licensure is an alternative to many years of formal education are massage therapy, cosmetology, physical therapy, automobile repair, and dental hygiene. Licensure and education requirements vary from state to state, but in most cases fewer than two years of education are required before you can get a license or certificate in these fields.
A new study of low-income students and how they fare shows that they are better off financially when they get certificates in practical skills instead of academic degrees. That is because many who go to college drop out of school without getting any degree or professional training at all. Regardless of your income level, the lesson is the same: if you’re likely to lose interest in a four-year school, then entering a trade is an attractive alternative.- Learn as an apprentice: Apprenticeships used to be much more common than they are today, but in many fields the practice continues informally. For example, many professional chefs started out as line-cooks with no formal training, then worked their way up to executive chef. Some even own their own restaurants or catering businesses.
- Join the military: The United States military consists of five active duty branches and seven reserve components. The minimum age for enlistment is 17, but a high school diploma is required. The vast majority of enlistees, over 90 percent, are recent high school graduates. Joining the military will provide you with specialized training in any number of fields, depending upon the branch you are considering. However, it’s not for everyone; once you have enlisted, you are under contract with the U.S. government, and getting out is extremely difficult.
- Get a vocational associate degree: Community colleges have options other than preparation for a four-year school. An Associate Degree in Occupational Studies, for example, qualifies students for entering the workforce immediately upon graduation. Degrees are available in many fields, such as computer programming, medical specialties, hospitality and restaurant management, wireless technology, or secure networking, just to name a few. There are generally very few or no liberal arts requirements for this degree.
You NEVER hear people in public life suggest any of this. In fact, it's common for prominent liberals to deride the military as a career path. It's tough to find a high school in a typical American suburb (not to mention inner-city) that offers any sort of vocational training. Obtaining a license (well, maybe not a real estate license ...) is also a good idea, although doing so requires doing things like using your brain and obtaining a specific skill set (horrors!).
The real problem with education in the United States is the sheep-like way many parents and kids go about obtaining one. College is always the goal, whether or not the kid can do the work, or even wants to be there in the first place. A parent can spend thousands of dollars a semester to send their C+ student to a middling private college so he can get a job he most likely could have gotten after a few years in the work force after high school. It's a tremendous waste of time and resources for everyone involved. But the peculiar demands of modern political discourse leaves us stuck rhetorically on "everyone goes to college" as the only socially approved choice.
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