Tumbling Dice

South Bay Congresswoman Jackie Speier is rumored to be interested in running for California Attorney General. It's a free country and she can do what she wants, but this seems like a plan that hasn't been thought through: Dominos Await Move By Speier

If Congresswoman Jackie Speier, D-San Mateo, decides to jump into this year's race for California attorney general - and we have it on good source she's seriously considering it - the move will create a domino effect in San Francisco politics

It's an odd step for a number of reasons. First, Speier has spent virtually her entire career in the legislature; first in the State Assembly, then the State Senate, and now the House of Representatives. While she is a notorious nanny-stater - she has introduced legislation to set the national speed limit at 60 MPH - Speier has never demonstrated any sort of interest in law enforcement.

More important, she ascended to the House of Representatives after spending years literally waiting for her predecessor Tom Lantos to bow out. He was finally term-limited by God in 2007, so Speier has only just arrived at the pinnacle of her legislative career. The seat is her's for life if she wants it, thanks to CA-style gerrymandering. Now, she wants to leave already? What gives?

All of this has already given rise to the sort of jockeying among local Democrats, which is the closest we ever come to contested elections:

The potential congressional vacancy could prompt state Sen. Leland Yee, D-San Francisco, to abandon his re-election run this fall - and, by extension, let go his unannounced bid for San Francisco mayor - to go after the seat. (Sen. Joe Simitian, D-Palo Alto, is another likely contender.)

That could lead Assemblywoman Fiona Ma, D-San Francisco, to jump over to the November Senate race for Yee's seat.

It's all but certain that San Francisco Supervisor Sean Elsbernd would jump at the chance to get Ma's seat; the west side supe has been eyeing a statewide run for some time. San Francisco Assessor Recorder Phil Ting (another mayoral hopeful) may also look into running for the 12th District Assembly seat. And Supervisors John Avalos and Eric Mar's names have been floated as well.

We can't help but think that the shakeup could lead San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris to abandon her attorney general run, though her campaign insists she's in it to win it. She'd have a bevy of options: re-election, a mayoral bid ... or possibly an appointment to the U.S. attorney's office by her good friend, President Obama?

That's life in a one-party state: public office is not subject to elections, but "jockeying" among insiders.